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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest shock.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still